Math-based Predictions For the Next Draw- Express Entry

Well, now that you have your score, it’s time to find out exactly how good it is. Remember, the higher the score, the more the chances of being accepted in the draw.

I started with collecting information about past draws. For every draw, CIC publishes two main pieces of information- the CRS cut-off and the number of invitations that were sent.  Below is how the trends look:

Now, while the cutoff looks relatively flat, it’s mostly due to outliers. Cleaning up for some of the “special” draws and removing 2015 data, this is what it looks like:

Similarly, the number of invitations issued looks like:

Now, given that the CRS cut-off is determined by the number of ITAs issued, I started by predicting the expected number of ITAs in the next draw based on this data.

As you can see, the prediction formula closely resembles the actual trend (R-square 97.7, for anyone interested). Based on this formula, the next draw should have 3100 ITAs issued.

Next up, I tried to determine the potential cut-off based on the 3100 ITAs. Below is the most recent distribution that CIC provided.

Getting into more granular details and focusing on the more relevant 351-450 range, I tried to predict the distribution at a unit level. The results look decently close to the actual distribution provided:

Now that I have a prediction for distribution and the number of ITAs, I combined the two to predict the numbers for the next draw. And the final prediction is:

Predictions for Next CIC Express Entry Draw:

#ITAs: 3100, CRS Cutoff: 443

Please leave comments and thoughts in the comments section below. Also, if you post your expected score, I can try to predict your chances of getting an ITA.

Regards,

The Eagles